Reasons why you should take the Brexit Pledge

Boris Johnson says he plans to renegotiate the Brexit deal agreed with the EU by his predecessor Theresa May. He says he is committed to leaving on 31 October come what may. Although this sounds fantastic, that does not mean we can be certain about what will happen. There are still many possible outcomes.

Scenario 1 (No Deal Brexit): Given the EU's refusal to strike a reasonable, mutually beneficial deal, leaving the European Union without a deal is now the most favourable course of action amongst members of the public. How likely would it be for Parliament to allow this to happen? We have little faith since Parliament is filled to the rafters with anti-democratic MP's. It has been suggested Boris Johnson could prorogue Parliament to let a no-deal Brexit happen. Proroguing effectively means Parliament is shut down. However, if MP's did want to oppose no-deal Brexit and did get a chance to do so, their ultimate weapon would be ousting the prime minster through a confidence vote. Just because we have a pro-brexit prime minster does not mean that Brexit is in the bag.

Scenario 2 (Another no-confidence vote): Under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011, general elections are only supposed to happen every five years. But a vote of confidence allows Remoaner MP's vote on whether they want the government to continue. If a majority of MP's vote for the motion then it starts a 14-day countdown. If during that time the current government or any other alternative government cannot win a new vote of confidence, then an early general election will be called. That election cannot happen for at least 25 working days but the precise date is set by royal proclamation on the advice of the prime minister. So the election could come after Brexit has happened if there's no further delay. Given the behavior of parliament in recent months, Boris Johnson could be forced to seek another extension to make way for a general election.

Scenario 3 (Early General Election): Boris Johnson could decide that an election is his best option. What happens if such a plan backfires as it did with Theresa May? Remain groups have been mobilising for months. The impact of a 'progressive alliance' designed to block brexit supporting candidates from being elected could lead to the Conservatives losing their majority. Boris Johnson's grip on power is vulnerable, Brexit is by no means secured.

Scenario 4 (Resurrection of the Withdrawal Agreement): It isn't beyond the realm of possibility that the government may begin to backslide on its no deal stance, and in an abdication of responsibility it may pave the way to give MP's another opportunity to fudge Brexit by resurrecting the totally discredited Withdrawal Agreement. Now that parliament is faced with a government that is "working on the assumption of leaving the EU without a deal", parliamentarians may have a sudden attraction to the Withdrawal Agreement since it keeps us locked in to many aspects of the EU.  

Scenario 5 (Another referendum):  A so-called "confirmatory vote" where the public would be given the choice between leaving without a deal or remaining in the EU could be forced on to the public. Experts at University College London's Constitution Unit suggest that the minimum time for all of the required steps above is about 22 weeks. That already takes us beyond 31 October. Another extension would be required.

Scenario 6 (Cancel Brexit): The European Court of Justice has ruled that it would be legal for the UK to unilaterally revoke Article 50 to cancel Brexit (without the need for agreement from the other 27 EU countries). If the Conservative government loses a vote of confidence, or loses a general election, there is nothing to stop a new government from cancelling Brexit altogether. Don't let this happen, sign the Brexit Pledge now.

Adapted from https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46393399

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